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The "is a pocket gun enough?" thread inspired a bit of internet research.

According to this link, the average hit rate for rounds fired by cops is 20%
Success rate of 20% is likely "service" size firearms, not pocket pistols.
https://www.concealedcarry.com/gear/how-many-rounds-should-you-carry-concealed-everyday/
Many of us (myself included) believe we can shoot better than the average cop.

This link is the cop that stopped the mall stabber, a firearms instructor and competitor, he hit 6 out of 10 shots, 60%
60% success with a Glock 19, not a pocket pistol.
https://www.policeone.com/police-training/articles/230490006-10-police-training-takeaways-from-the-St-Cloud-mall-attack/

Would I or most on DC do as well as the 60% hit success of a firearms instructor & 3 gun competitor under stress?
I've never had to use a gun in SD, an estimate of 50% hit success under stress is reasonable based on average cops & the instructor.

Just how many hits may be required to stop an attacker? There is data for that:
https://www.buckeyefirearms.org/alternate-look-handgun-stopping-power
In defensive shootings, average of 2-3 rounds of ammo (9mm, 40, 45) to stop one attacker.
2.45 rounds = 3
I can't shoot a fraction / decimal of a bullet, have to fire the whole thing.

I think it reasonable that one could face two attackers.
Based on data that it takes 2-3 rounds to stop one attacker, 6 rounds may be needed for 2 attackers, but that is with a 100% hit success.
Given the assumption of a 50% hit success under stress, 10-12 rounds could be needed for stopping two attackers, based on data not my opinion.

Based on data, having at least 10 rounds available in pistol (before reload) seems prudent.
 

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The key variable missing is "at what distance". I'm guessing that if most regular folks fired in self defense at the average distance that cops fire, there would be a lot of regular folks fighting for their life in court trying to defend "fear of imminent death". When you get the variable that covers average distance for legal use of personal self defense and average distance for shots fired by cops, we could have a reasonable discussion about how it it all relates to the regular Joe and number of rounds and % hits.

If the discussion is about what is prudent, then I think your assumptions about that are reasonable.
 

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My thoughts have drifted that direction in recent years due to my changing perception of threat. I used to hear mostly about solo criminals attacking, but the norm now seems to be multiples. Maybe it was always this way and I just didn't catch on. But due to the group therapy that may be needed I've become more open to higher capacity plastic strikers. For the same size and weight as steel single stacks I can shoot more rounds before a reload.

Something to consider, though, is the ability to retreat. In my home when I'm cornered I may be faced with fight or die. Out in public I generally have at least one egress route I can use.

No way am I relying on just a pocket pistol for HD, but in public during the day in generally safer areas (I can hear the internet warming up to scold me for saying this) a pocket pistol that may only have 5 shots is probably enough to create enough time/space for me to flee even if I don't "stop" the threat.
 

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Comparing LE data solely on a hit/miss ratio to private citizen carry is like comparing a sky diving course to a HALO jump.
 

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Hits are a time/distance problem. Individual proficiency and mindset are critical.
From an SD standpoint, Immediate action is very important as action beats reaction even on multiple targets.
Practice, practice, leads one to perfect practice. IMO, of course. Time/distance will determine effective hits
for a reasonably skilled individual.
 

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I don't think many will argue that less ammo is better. It's just a question of balancing risk vs practicality of carry. The smallest 10-shot 9mm that I know of is a G26, and most people have situations at some time when even that's too big to carry. Meanwhile, while it's certainly possible to face two determined attackers, it's probably a rarity - criminals rarely stick around once someone starts shooting at them, especially if one or more of them is shot.

If one is worried about capacity, but finds a need to carry a low-capacity gun, I think the answer is to carry more mags and learn to reload quickly.
 

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I'm not a cop.
The Thinking Gunfighter: Self Defense Findings
That said, I usually carry at least 10 rounds

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I stopped reading after this

The shooting distance in the vast majority of cases was slightly in excess of arm's length. At this distances, even .22s and .25s are highly immediately lethal.

That site is run by Dave Armstrong apparently. He was a frequent contributor on GT for years, not sure if he's still there or not. One mention, it wasn't Armstrongs article I quoted above.

As to the OP's extrapolation on ammo needs, everyone's got an opinion,
 

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Regarding risk, I'll repost something I've argued before when discussing revolvers vs autos, as it seems relevant:

In the 1970's, Massad Ayoob did extensive research into the Illinois State Police and their use of the S&W Model 39, as they were one of the first large LE organizations (~1500) to adopt autos. He identified four troopers, in three gunfights, over ten years, who he believes survived when they would have been injured or killed due to lack of ammo, if they'd been armed with six-shot revolvers.

So, it can be reasonably approximated that, if one's risk every hour of his life is the same as an average Illinois state trooper on duty for an hour in the 70's, he will encounter a situation where a revolver has insufficient ammo capacity once every 890 years.

In the same ten years, he found nine troopers who were saved in a fight by either its manual safety or its magazine disconnect safety. So - based on data - one could argue that it's better to carry a six-shot auto with a manual safety and magazine disconnect, than to carry a ten-shot auto without those features. But few find that option to be appealing.
 

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I'm not an advocate of .22lr for self-defense. But, having worked in a trauma center, I have see people killed with .22lr.
Those that dismiss .22lr, would you stand still and let someone shoot you knowing it's only .22lr?
Personally, I carry 10-20 of .38spl /.357mag or 10-51 of 9mm.
My main take on the article is number of rounds I civilian shootings.

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I stopped reading after this

The shooting distance in the vast majority of cases was slightly in excess of arm's length. At this distances, even .22s and .25s are .

That site is run by Dave Armstrong apparently. He was a frequent contributor on GT for years, not sure if he's still there or not. One highly immediately lethalmention, it wasn't Armstrongs article I quoted above.

As to the OP's extrapolation on ammo needs, everyone's got an opinion,
I'm sure you remember Richard Davis, Brownie? If his .22 would have been "highly immediately lethal" he wouldn't have been shot twice and the invention of personal body armor could well have been many, many decades later.
 

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Those that dismiss .22lr, would you stand still and let someone shoot you knowing it's only .22lr?
I really hate that tired old axiom, would you stand still and let me shoot you in the eye with a BB gun?
But you are absolutely correct about the .22 being lethal, it can be, but is it going to be quickly enough?
 

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I'm not an advocate of .22lr for self-defense. But, having worked in a trauma center, I have see people killed with .22lr.
Those that dismiss .22lr, would you stand still and let someone shoot you knowing it's only .22lr?
Personally, I carry 10-20 of .38spl /.357mag or 10-51 of 9mm.
My main take on the article is number of rounds I civilian shootings.

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But have you "seen" them killed or just seen them on a slab at a later date? I've seen a guy shot with a 25 in the chest at point blank while standing right next to him [ could have been me just as easily ] and he dropped without so much as a twitch and expired [ later determined to have nicked his aorta ].

I've seen another fella, leo I was with, shot with a 45acp 230 grain ball round in the chest at point blank [ could have just as easily been me ], who survived to retire with pension after a long bout with surgeries as the bullet entered the chest and traveled down and exited his right calf.

Woke to a gun shot from a 1911 45 by sgt at arms in guard barracks. He shot another Marine point blank in the chest and he expired as he hit the floor.

All that to state, shooting people is literally a "crap" shoot. I wasn't always so lucky as in the above instances of them instead of me either.
 

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I'm sure you remember Richard Davis, Brownie? If his .22 would have been "highly immediately lethal" he wouldn't have been shot twice and the invention of personal body armor could well have been many, many decades later.
I sure do remember Davis, quite the innovator and responsible for a lot of leo's lives being saved.
 

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But have you "seen" them killed or just seen them on a slab at a later date? I've seen a guy shot with a 25 in the chest at point blank while standing right next to him [ could have been me just as easily ] and he dropped without so much as a twitch and expired [ later determined to have nicked his aorta ].

I've seen another fella, leo I was with, shot with a 45acp 230 grain ball round in the chest at point blank [ could have just as easily been me ], who survived to retire with pension after a long bout with surgeries as the bullet entered the chest and traveled down and exited his right calf.

Woke to a gun shot from a 1911 45 by sgt at arms in guard barracks. He shot another Marine point blank in the chest and he expired as he hit the floor.

All that to state, shooting people is literally a "crap" shoot.
Over those 7 years I daily dealt with several deceased
At least once a week I watched as people died in front of me.

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The analysis has a lot of problems. Perhaps the biggest is the idea of knowing how many bullet it will take to stop one attacker. That is impossible to know, unless one round does it. Why? Because if 3 cops put 8 rounds into a guy in 5 seconds, how many rounds did it take to "stop" the guy? The only way to know would be to shoot one round, wait 30 seconds, shoot another round, wait another 30 seconds, etc - which no one does or should do.

When the FBI studied it, they concluded if you don't hit the CNS, then no amount of handgun hits will incapacitate the BG until the loss of blood pressure shuts down the mind - which can take 10-20 seconds even if you've shot the guy in the heart with a 44 magnum. Thus the number of rounds cops put into a suspect before he is incapacitated is meaningless, because they often shoot the guy a number of times during a 5-10 second window.

Further, the average hit rate is 20% by cops. Here is a video of the Pima County AZ SWAT in action:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP0f00_JMak&feature=youtu.be

"At this point the five person team fired at least 71 rounds at Guerena in less than seven seconds, who died after being hit 22 times." IIRC, their misses put rounds into 5 homes. They DID have a 31% hit rate, shooting thru a door down a short hallway. And that 31% hit rate has NOTHING to do with CCW.

Range is also a factor, as others have pointed out. Most self-defense shootings will be at very close range. Otherwise they would not qualify as "self-defense". Cops shoot at longer ranges because its their job. And I would hope a lot of CCW carriers would put more bullets down range in a year than a lot of cops would, although many do not. That is an individual choice.

There is a trade-off involved. If I HAVE to shoot, I'd prefer to be holding my 686 or my Beretta 92. But it has been close to 40 years since I last drew a gun in self-defense, and that didn't end up requiring ANY shooting. So do I carry a Beretta 92, with all the extra effort needed to conceal it, for another 20 years of my life, knowing there is an excellent chance I'll never use it for defense? Do I walk around southern Arizona in the summer wearing a denim vest to hide my full sized gun? Or do I carry a J-frame, or a Pico, knowing those will both do me fine in a close-up encounter?

When I go to work later today, going on to a military base, I won't be carrying at all. Not allowed on a military base, and they can search me & my truck at any time. I'd prefer to have a small gun with me...but I won't. And the additional statistical risk to my life is very, very small. The statistical safety difference between carrying a J-frame and a 92 is too small to measure. And thus, I don't wear a denim vest in the summer, even if going to Tucson. YMMV.
 
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