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Bird Flu

1137 Views 14 Replies 13 Participants Last post by  Bruces45
This one I hope we don't see...Flu epidemic

If you read this you'll see that they are predicting vaccine/power/food shortages, rioting and almost 2 million dead. Not a good scenario for anyone.

I would assume that preparation for this sort of scenario would involve staying home versus bugging out. It would suck for me because I travel so much.


Bush plan for flu crisis shows U.S. not ready -NYT Sat Oct 8, 2:58 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A draft of the Bush administration's final plan for dealing with a likely Pandemic flu outbreak shows the United States is woefully unprepared for the potential disaster, The New York Times reported on Saturday.

The document says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks," and that more than 1.9 million people could die in the worst case scenario, the Times said.

If that occurred, according to the draft, hospitals would be overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics and power and food would be in short supply, it said.

The Times said it obtained a copy of the plan which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month. A spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt told the paper the document it had was a draft and had not been finalized.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed millions of birds across Asia and infected 116 people, killing 60 of them. If it acquires the ability to pass easily from person to person, it could kill millions in the space of a few months, experts say.

The nearly 400-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions, but notes that those moves are unlikely to slow "introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two," the Times said.

The draft, written by health officials, includes 10 supplements that suggest ways for local and state governments to prepare, such as drafting documents that would justify quarantine. It does not address military or other government departmental responses, the Times reported.

According to the document, in the worst-case scenario 8.5 million would also be hospitalized, and costs would exceed $450 billion. It calls for production of 600 million vaccines within six months, which is more than 10 times current capacity.

U.S. President George W. Bush met with the chief executive officers of some of the top corporate makers of vaccines on Friday and asked them to do their utmost to boost flu vaccine production.

The Times quoted an unnamed health official who provided the copy of the plan as saying its true shortcoming was "that is doesn't say who's in charge."

Envisioning how an outbreak might play out at its peak, the draft says about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid of becoming sick. Hospitals are overwhelmed, it says.

"Social unrest occurs," the plan says. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories. Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed."
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I'm Up On This One. The Avian Bird Flu

And...yes this one is a true danger my fellow forum members.
With a 60%Plus guaranteed mortality rate.
Children especially vulnerable but, decently deadly to every person.
Even the experts are saying that it's only a matter of when & not if.
Let's stay on top of this one folks.
i wanna know where our people where when they were giving the vaccine out and we didnt get any?
Oh my - more good news, not!

Been watching this for a while now and risk seems uncomfortably real. This winter coming may be a far from comfortable ride - for many potential reasons.
Bud White said:
i wanna know where our people where when they were giving the vaccine out and we didnt get any?
There isn't a vaccine currently available IIRC. This strain of bird flu still can't be passed from human to human as of yet. I bellieve this article and others I have read point to the potential problems it could cause.

I may be wrong here, but in the local E.R.s they are not even vaccinating the staff.
Being a Board of Health Inspector I see this type of panic every year. Every bloke who is allergic to oxygen claims to have a need for a shot and they want it NOW!

The media has a great deal to do with public panic! "This strain will kill 60% of the population unless you get a Flu shot" This strain will affect the elderly and immune compromised" "This strain will make your lips turn blue with yellow polka dots"

Blah,blah ,blah..........By the end of October nobody calls or even asks about it anymore.

Most of the people I hear from want a shot for free. My take on this is.....

Wash your hands often and keep them away from your face and mouth.

If you get a sniffle that an over the counter remidy won't solve, go to the doctor!

Stay healthy,

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Anybody remember the movie with Dustin Hoffman and Morgan Freeman called OUTBREAK? If you haven't seen it, rent it. Addresses this perfectly. If you have seen it, see it again.
Any Docs, in the house. I hate say it but I would suggest buying some basic meds if you don't have it. I see people freaking out and crowding stores to get meds. I would stock up if you don't have them. Secondly, basic hand washing and vitamins would also help to build your system. I am childrens mental health counselor and when I first started those kids really made me sick. And just think I was fresh from the service and as you guys know Uncle Sam keeps you well vaccinated.

In short just remember the basics and all should hopefully be fine. I will continue to read up on this on yahoo etc... :cool:
Basic meds (OTC) aren't going to do anything to stop a bug like the Avian Flu and that's a fact. It might make you a bit more comfortable while you die. But the BEST suggestion is certainly in the hygene department! IMHO you can avoid or lessen at least the contagion factors by keeping a supply of anti-bacterial waterless soap on you at all times. Purell or something like it. Every year, teachers are prone to get the same bugs spread inside a school until we build up our immune systems. I seem to get sick a bit less than other teachers due to this.
I think the point BlueLion was trying to make was that people tend to "stock up" on basic things when stuff happens, so buy your stuff now and be prepared in case there's a rush on the pharmacies.
Always get a kick out of the "chicken little" reports of potential pandenmic flu outbreaks every few years (sorry, couldn't resist the pun).

They never seem to materialize.

This flu doesn't even jump between birds and humans very well. It will have to mutate to a form that jumps between humans, at a minimum, to be a problem.

They always compare it to the 1918 epidemic, when there were no flu vaccines, no anti-viral drugs, no antibiotics for secondary infections (the main killer in flu epidemics), and a World War taking place in trenches (think of all the pictures you have seen of those conditions).

Get your annual flu shots, practice good hygiene, take your vitamins, get 8 hours of sleep and stop worrying so much.
AutoFan said:

This flu doesn't even jump between birds and humans very well.

What if the infected birds have certain human-like qualities? You know, such as walking and talking? If Big Bird, Woody Woodpecker, or Tweety Bird were carriers, would that increase the chances of human infection? <grin>
AutoFan said:
Get your annual flu shots, practice good hygiene, take your vitamins, get 8 hours of sleep and stop worrying so much.
Really, the best advice around. However, anyone working around epidemiology knows, it's not "if", but "when". It will happen; the best thing you, personally, can do, is be self-contained/sufficient for +/- 3 weeks, until something like this (hopefully) burns itself out. :dead:
Gonzo - this is the guy you need to be worried about, compared with those others :biggrin:

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