what will happen to all this crap if the supreme court rules favorably in the Chicago case ?
Most likely scenario is that nothing much will happen. Yeah, some cities and counties are going to have their laws struck down but the big picture isn't going to change that much. There are lots of folks out there who seem to think things are going to change in a big way but in reality they're just hoping and praying. It's likely that change won't happen or very quickly.
Take California (because this is the Calfornia laws suck thread) for example. California has an assault weapons ban, an approved handgun roster, an open carry ban for loaded weapons, a ban on gunshows at public fairgrounds, a magazine limit restriction, and an ammo ban.
If
McDonald results in incorporation, then
Heller will mean that guns cannot be required to be unloaded or ammo to be unavailable which renders the weapon unuseable for immediate self defense. Ergo the ammo ban will have a legal challenge which will take a year to get through the courts.
The open carry ban for loaded weapons will survive. States have the ability to determine what method of carry will satisfy both self defense/security and public safety. If a State chooses concealed carry as the preferred method and OC is prohibited then that prohibition is OK so long as the other method is available. Requiring good cause before allowing CC is something that a State can lawfully do (
Heller) so long as they do not make it unduly restrictive to the point that no one will qualify. However, legal challenges will take at least a year AFTER the State makes it impossible to get a CCW and creates enough of a paper trail to prove that the rules are unduly restrictive. The challenges will also not be successful at first so this will take many many years and the outcome is not certain.
The approved handgun roster is going to stay since it was enacted as a public safety measure to get rid of Saturday Night Specials. A legal challenge is possible but the outcome doesn't look good in my opinion. Mostly because there are legitimate mfg's on the list, the State can impose standards on goods sold in the State, and the list really did get rid of some of the flimsiest and dangerous handguns.
The gunshow ban will go away. The courts are waiting on
McDonald to see which way the wind blows and that's the way that they will vote. Unless the County can classify the fairgrounds as a "sensitive place" requring a ban on ALL firearms at ALL times there is no basis to ban gun shows there.
The assault weapons ban will stay. You will NEVER get it to go away unless the SCOTUS specifically says that an assault weapons ban is unconstitutional. Then the State will merely re-label the guns as something else and ban them again. We cannot win here but there are folks who will continue to fight this lost cause. If that makes them happy, fine. But, I do not believe they will ever win.
The 10 round magazine limit will stay. There is no constitutional challenge possible that I can see. The State could limit magazines to one round and that would be allowable under the constitution.
So, the result will be that States/local governments cannot ban weapons from public property absent the property being a "sensitive place" which the fairgrounds are not. The State cannot limit or ban ammo. The State can/must choose between OC and CC but cannot ban both. Since most states laws already fall in this area there isn't much to change. The laws which fall outside the self defense area (assault weapons, handgun rosters, magazine limits, etc) aren't going to change.
These are my personal thoughts. You may disagree if you choose.
