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563 Posts

Why would you think they should somehow be readily apparent? Probability and Statistics aren't exactly intuitively obvious subjects, facts used by casinos, card sharks and lotteries the world over to separate people from their money.Brother.. your methods for qualifying any of your opinions remain unknown.

You've never heard of probability?I will say that based on the snipits of information that I can glean from your commentary, I submit that it doesn't sound like anything I have heard of.

Are you a statistician? If so, run the numbers yourself and share your own conclusions.If you want to offer a merited assessment, I will be glad to thoughtfully consider your conclusions.

Then you're not a statistician?Until then, I simply cant.

Calculus is rarely involved in statistics. Sure sounds swell as a buzz word, though, huh?Perhaps you and I simply have different ideas about how such determinations and conclusions are made. Crime stats are one thing and a properly constructed and examined risk matrix is something else. You are tossing around a bunch of numbers but based on what prescribed calculus...

Pretty much every situation in life requires multiple variables to model, and even seemingly simple situations can be very complex to model....and what multivariate element?

Define "its."Its much more than simply crunching numbers.

I use the Data Analysis toolpak for the simpler stuff and my own statistics spreadsheets I created in multiple graduate level statistics courses for the heavy stuff. See bottom sheet tabs. I modify them as required to perform whatever analysis is required. I've dabbled in R, but it's overkill for my needs.Generally speaking, you cant come up with such complex conclusions with just scratch paper and a calculator. It doesn't work that way.

Why do people like you feel some sort of incessant need to challenge others every time they post conclusions from properly conducted data analysis? I've been in this business more than 30 years. It's what I was doing before headed off to the Air Force. I used statistics throughout my career in the Air Force. Last week I finished a four-week contract analyzing some 3.7 million recording containing just over 50 fields per record.

You offered, "I will be glad to thoughtfully consider your conclusions." No, I don't think you can. Don't take that the wrong way. It's just that exceedingly few people know how to properly calculate probabilities and conduct statistical analyses.

So, thanks for your offer, but respectfully, declined.

In the meantime, I'll continue doing what I've done for a long time and will continue posting results, with or without your approval, thank you very much.