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Brother.. your methods for qualifying any of your opinions remain unknown.
Why would you think they should somehow be readily apparent? Probability and Statistics aren't exactly intuitively obvious subjects, facts used by casinos, card sharks and lotteries the world over to separate people from their money.

I will say that based on the snipits of information that I can glean from your commentary, I submit that it doesn't sound like anything I have heard of.
You've never heard of probability?

If you want to offer a merited assessment, I will be glad to thoughtfully consider your conclusions.
Are you a statistician? If so, run the numbers yourself and share your own conclusions.

Until then, I simply cant.
Then you're not a statistician?

Perhaps you and I simply have different ideas about how such determinations and conclusions are made. Crime stats are one thing and a properly constructed and examined risk matrix is something else. You are tossing around a bunch of numbers but based on what prescribed calculus...
Calculus is rarely involved in statistics. Sure sounds swell as a buzz word, though, huh?

...and what multivariate element?
Pretty much every situation in life requires multiple variables to model, and even seemingly simple situations can be very complex to model.

Its much more than simply crunching numbers.
Define "its."

Generally speaking, you cant come up with such complex conclusions with just scratch paper and a calculator. It doesn't work that way.
I use the Data Analysis toolpak for the simpler stuff and my own statistics spreadsheets I created in multiple graduate level statistics courses for the heavy stuff. See bottom sheet tabs. I modify them as required to perform whatever analysis is required. I've dabbled in R, but it's overkill for my needs.

Why do people like you feel some sort of incessant need to challenge others every time they post conclusions from properly conducted data analysis? I've been in this business more than 30 years. It's what I was doing before headed off to the Air Force. I used statistics throughout my career in the Air Force. Last week I finished a four-week contract analyzing some 3.7 million recording containing just over 50 fields per record.

You offered, "I will be glad to thoughtfully consider your conclusions." No, I don't think you can. Don't take that the wrong way. It's just that exceedingly few people know how to properly calculate probabilities and conduct statistical analyses.

So, thanks for your offer, but respectfully, declined.

In the meantime, I'll continue doing what I've done for a long time and will continue posting results, with or without your approval, thank you very much.

Stats Worksheets.jpg
 

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Calculus is rarely involved in statistics. Sure sounds swell as a buzz word, though, huh?
English is not my first language but when I said "by what perscribed calculus", I was simply asking [by what set of values, from where and put together by what means]. I guess its just easier to say.... what information did you use, where did it come from and how did you put it together?


Why do people like you feel some sort of incessant need to challenge others every time they post conclusions from properly conducted data analysis? I've been in this business more than 30 years. It's what I was doing before headed off to the Air Force. I used statistics throughout my career in the Air Force. Last week I finished a four-week contract analyzing some 3.7 million recording containing just over 50 fields per record.
I am sure you were good at your job but if you are going to talk about threat assessments regarding predatory criminals, please go learn about it( if you haven't). I don't challenge everyone or everything, I simply challenge those things that stand contrary to my training, knowledge and experience dealing with crime and criminals. I have already highlighted my issues regarding your method. Think what you want Bro.. its ok with me.

In the meantime, I'll continue doing what I've done for a long time and will continue posting results, with or without your approval, thank you very much.
That sounds great.. content fosters fruitful discussion.


ps

What I will offer to those participating in this thread is that statistics are only [part] of the process by which we can competently assess or predict the potential for danger. Many conditions and elements can easily move the pendulum in one way or the other and by varying degrees. Its not all about pecking a few numbers into a program and pressing go. In my opinion, statistics are important and are commonly used as part of these types of consideration by many professionals around the globe. The main point I am trying to make is that stats are not the domineering force, they are but one element. That's said, statistics do not rule and statistics are not an absolute indicator when considering exceedingly dynamic conditions associated with human behavior. Since9 is correct, I am no statistician.. I am simply a ole country boy who has had the occasion to conduct risk and threat assessments and also profile varying classifications of criminals. I do not outright dismiss any of the mathematical computations referred to in this thread but if that is all there is, I simply cannot call it adequate as the process is substantially more involved than that. Ultimately we all have a choice to make in regards to mode of carry. If a person is not sure if OC is a good or BAD condition for them, I don't think the best place to find the answer is solely within a calculator. If that is how a person makes their decision regarding personal safety and self defense, I suspect they may find themselves deficient.
 

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I guess its just easier to say.... what information did you use, where did it come from and how did you put it together?
Fair enough. I threw together the following table. It's not definitive, but it's very similar to the definitive one I calculated back in 2009 when I first moved here.

Please review the key notes, below the table. The 17 years point is for the raw probability.

Do I Need a Gun - RAW p.jpg

Key Notes:

1. Rates per 100,000 for both the US as well as COS were obtained from the sources provided in the table.
2. COS stands for Colorado Springs, the city in which I live.
3. We're significantly higher than the national average in motor vehicle theft/damage, larceny, and aggravated assault, but almost 4 times higher than the national average in rape. :mad:
4. The COS POP RAW numbers are actual number of crimes as reported by local law enforcement.
5. COS per 100,000 values are calculated by: 100,000*RAW/POP (population).
6. Raw Prob is simply the RAW divided by the total population.

Without consideration of any other factors, the cumulative number of 3.855% says that, on average, there's a 3.855% probability that a citizen in Colorado Springs will encounter one of these four crime situations in any given year. Based on that probability, without considering any other factors, the odds are 50% that you'll need a firearm around the 17 year point.

Here's where the calculations consider some of the factors you mentioned:

7. The Pers Adjust allows for an adjustment in the Raw Prob commensurate with factors including location, physical security, electronic security, and behavior choices. For example, I do not go out and hang around in bars or leave anything in my vehicle while hiking or visiting any park, open space, etc.
8. Thus, the Adjust Prob reflects my personal 2.46% likelihood of encountering any of the eight violent or property crimes on an annual basis.
9. Gun Need is my personal assessment as to how often I would either want or need a firearm to deal with the eight crimes. You'll notice all four violent crimes receive a 100% rating. I'm no longer a young man. Why risk life and limb engaging in hand to hand combat when you have a gun? Those committing property crime, however, are more intent on stealing value, not harming someone else, and are often chased off by yelling or even just showing up.
10. The final column, Gun Prob, represents the actual probability I would either definitely want or need a firearm in that situation.
11. The cumulative for all situations comes to 0.94%. Thus, the chances are 0.94% I would NEED a gun in any given year.
12. It's often useful to calculate what's known as the LD50 point. In medicine, it's the dosage that results in death (lethal dosage) 50% of the time. In radiation, it's the amount of radiation that results in death 50% of the time.
13. The 50% point in this quick, napkin-back, non-definitive study is calculated via cumulative probability, the Failure Success table on the right. For 3.855%, that was 17 years. For 0.9385%, that's 73 years. Thus, we can state, "Given my personal location, physical and logical security, and behavioral habits, there's a 50% probability I would need a firearm at least once during 73 years of living in Colorado Springs."

This assessment, while not definitive, is close to the 1 in 37 years value I calculated in 2009. I suspect the difference between them is largely attributable to the fact that these days I'm rarely out after dark, whereas back in 2009 I hung around downtown nightspots with friends on a regular basis.

Is this making more sense to you now, Fizban?

If you're seriously interested in learning statistics, have at least a high school background in math, and consider yourself to be able of learning things on your own, I suggest you do two things:

1. Buy a copy of Barron's EZ-101 Study Keys Statistics by Dr. Martin Sternstein.

2. Run through the 67 videos of Kahn Academy Probability and Statistics on YouTube. They're quite good, albeit fast-paced, but you can hit pause.

If you're more motivated or find that simple guides and online study are not your style, you can take a year of statistics as an undergrad and three more at the graduate level.

What I will offer to those participating in this thread is that statistics are only [part] of the process by which we can competently assess or predict the potential for danger. Many conditions and elements can easily move the pendulum in one way or the other and by varying degrees. Its not all about pecking a few numbers into a program and pressing go. In my opinion, statistics are important and are commonly used as part of these types of consideration by many professionals around the globe. The main point I am trying to make is that stats are not the domineering force, they are but one element. That's said, statistics do not rule and statistics are not an absolute indicator when considering exceedingly dynamic conditions associated with human behavior. Since9 is correct, I am no statistician.. I am simply a ole country boy who has had the occasion to conduct risk and threat assessments and also profile varying classifications of criminals. I do not outright dismiss any of the mathematical computations referred to in this thread but if that is all there is, I simply cannot call it adequate as the process is substantially more involved than that. Ultimately we all have a choice to make in regards to mode of carry. If a person is not sure if OC is a good or BAD condition for them, I don't think the best place to find the answer is solely within a calculator. If that is how a person makes their decision regarding personal safety and self defense, I suspect they may find themselves deficient.
I think you'd be surprised at how many of your "non-statistical conditions and elements" can be estimated and incorporated into a statistical analysis. Accountants may get their hands slapped for estimating, but analysts use estimates all the time, and include the variability of their estimates. Navigators, for example, begin celestial computations with an "assumed position," then adjust that position based on celestial observations and the resulting calculations.

Even then, however, we only arrive at an MPP, or Most Probable Position. We continue to navigate from that position. Even a GPS position, however, is estimated. It's just that the error of the estimate is measured in feet, not miles. :loopy:
 

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Mods, can y’all get Tangle to take care of this?

I made it through page 7, and somebody put up graphs during all this “Arkansas discussion” being had here, so we all know the king of Graphs is our own Tangle! 👍🏻 :yup:

Let him get involved, we need Tangle :image035::danceban:
 

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Mods, can y’all get Tangle to take care of this?

I made it through page 7, and somebody put up graphs during all this “Arkansas discussion” being had here, so we all know the king of Graphs is our own Tangle! 👍🏻 :yup:

Let him get involved, we need Tangle :image035::danceban:
What we need are some biscuits!!! Extra thick biscuits!!!
 

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Mods, can y’all get Tangle to take care of this?

I made it through page 7, and somebody put up graphs during all this “Arkansas discussion” being had here, so we all know the king of Graphs is our own Tangle! 👍🏻 :yup:

Let him get involved, we need Tangle :image035::danceban:
Way to go @Sister! You FORCED ME to re-read ALL OF THIS THREAD before I realized the ONLY COMMENT I've made is a retort to @Rabbit212, and now, still NO REPLY from OP! :mad: STOP DOING THAT MIND CONTROL THING YOU DO!
 
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